I'm the last person in the world to issue political prognostications, but since everyone else already has, I suppose it's my turn, so here goes:
1. Sharon wins the upcoming Israeli election; and
2. A new American political party (call it the Giuliani party) emerges over the next several years, and quickly becomes a major political force.
Essentially, its the same driver in both cases. With the magic of the internet becoming less and less of a big deal, the ability to circumvent the Establishment becomes easier and easier.
In Israel, most people want to pursue peace as though there is terror, and to fight terror as though there could be peace. This is, of course, the polar opposite of Rabin's strategy, and the only option likely to work over time. Since both major parties are over-represented by their extremes, it just takes too much work to get anything done through them. Once they can be side-stepped, though, real live stuff can actually be accomplished.
My sense in the U.S. is that most people want a vigorous fight against terror, but tend not to get too worked up if a couple of guys want to get married. The Deanians are driving the Democrats toward appeasement, and the Republicans are proving to be less than capable at hasbara, which really matters now. John Kerry, bless his heart, seems to be acting in total bad faith when he kinda-sorta challenges whatever the Bush administration says. Aside from the impracticality of it all - outside of D.C. and Berkeley, folks aren't solely defined as Democrats or Republicans, which means that when the President is bashed and bashed and bashed, one effect is to weaken the presidency itself, not just its current holder.
Anyhoo, if I can reclaim my thread of logic, some of the criticisms are illegitimate, but that in now way implies that any subsequent ramifications can be ignored. This poor performance, more than any other, is the administration's most significant failure. (Also, they are wa-a-a-y too fixated on other people's alleged morality, which is a huge pain in the butt, and not just for the types that get off on that sort of thing.)
So right now, the regnant partisanship is actually keeping things from getting done. Sooner or later (My call is 2010, or mid-way through Hillary's first term), I think the 60% of the American public that finds itself within one standard deviation of the center just throws in the towel, and whoop, there it is.
(This may, incidentally, bypass my own ineligiblity for the Presidency, depending on how well Schwarzenegger regains his mojo. I'll keep you all posted.)
- Moishe Potemkin
Posted by MoisheP at November 24, 2005 11:35 AM | TrackBack