Braindrops

Cautious Optimism

Hic est another dopey posting representing my own conflation of politics, theology, and the other bugs in my noodle, to use the clinical psychological terminology.

Ever since we've run out of colours and substances with which to denote the myriad democratic "Revolutions" taking place in the Ukraine, Lebanon, Krygyzstan (which may or may not be a real country, but I do respect the name, and its scarcity of vowels), Palestine, Egypt, et cetera, there have been carefully phrased columns penned by the miniscule percentage of grown-up supporters of the Cowboy Docrine advocating something less than full-throated "I told you so"-ing of our friends on the left.

I agree with the sentiment, but not for the reasons usually offered. Eleven times out of ten, the caution is advised because the long, hard slog is a long, hard slog, and "many things could still go wrong." That's all true, and besides, it covers our collective hmm-mmm's from the New York Times the next time a bunch of schoolchildren are blown up by another fervent Mohammedan.

Larger point: Arrogance is unwarranted here not because we don't know yet how this whole thing will play out, but because we shouldn't necessarily take credit for being right in the first place. We all have our own outlooks, shaped by goodness-knows-what experiences and educations that have been inflicted upon us from Day 1. Folks that disagreed with us didn't do so out of a fervent wish that Saddam Hussein continue his raping and pillaging uninterrupted, but because their understanding of how people "work" led to the conclusion that destabilizing the Middle East was a bad idea.

I disagreed, of course, and anyone with a modicum of technological talent (i.e. not me) could go to older posts and see that first-hand. But do I have penetrating insight into Islamic culture? More precisely, did I have a more accurate estimate of the percentage of Iraqis that would feel liberated, and the percentage that would view the U.S. invasion as a permanent blot of humiliation? No sir, I did not, and neither did you. (Only guy that comes close is Bernard Lewis, and he's eight gazillion years old. Even Karen Armstrong got this wrong.)

What's my point? Always a good question, but in this case, the issue is that the subjectivity that typically underlies our strongest core beliefs is still subjective, and that point shouldn't be forgotten. Not because of the threat of political payback, or becuase we might be wrong in the future, but because our being right in the past was more a product of luck than genius.

I'll look this over in the morning to see if it makes any sense. Until then, I remain, your ever humble servant,

- Moishe Potemkin

P.S. JosiahQ, I'm not ignoring your questions, but the original thread isn't accepting any more comments, and last time I tried, I blew up my computer.

Posted by MoisheP at March 19, 2005 10:48 PM